The Future Of The Future Of Books

Thoughts on Amazon, e-books, and the future of how we read words.



Nathan Pyle / BuzzFeed


The year I graduated high school, the media was overrun with speculation about a new technology set to shake the foundation of the world. What was it? We weren't told, exactly. All we knew was that code name "IT" was so revolutionary that we would have to rebuild our cities from scratch. Techie god Steve Jobs declared it "as big a deal as the PC."


At the end of the year, the product that was about to blow our minds to the future was revealed: the Segway.


A dorky scooter.


Instead of forcing us to rebuild our major metropolises, the Segway managed to be a prop for blowhards on TV sitcoms. I think I've seen one twice in real life.


I was thinking about the Segway again as I've fallen into a hole of reading about Amazon versus Hachette, e-books, self-publishing, and Kindle Unlimited. Most articles and nearly every comment thread are filled with declarations that e-book dominance is already here. The publishers are "dinosaurs" who don't see the "paradigm-shifting" "sea change" and aren't creating "proactive" new "business models" in the wake of this "disruptive" "revolution." Anyone who reads print is a "luddite" propping up a "dying industry." If they don't get on board soon, they're doomed!


Strangely, you can read those same comments in articles from last year. Or five years ago. Or 10.


It's been over 15 years since the first dedicated e-readers were released, and over seven since the first Kindle. Today, about 15% of consumer spending on books is electronic and about 30% of books sold are e-books. The majority of book readers still only read in print, and only 6% of readers read e-books exclusively. It's clear that e-books are here to stay, but it's less clear that the complete dismantling of the publishing industry is around the corner.




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