A New For-Hire Vehicle Cap In New York Could Devastate Uber

And the data the city is using to support the freeze on growth may be flawed.

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Here are some facts: New York City traffic is notoriously bad. More cars mean more carbon emissions, which is bad for the climate. And finally, New York City is the largest market for Uber in the United States, larger than both San Francisco and Los Angeles combined.

The city has taken those facts to mean that Uber and companies like it may be the cause of slower traffic speeds and increasing congestion over the last few years.

To that end, the city council and Mayor Bill de Blasio's administration have proposed a yearlong freeze on growth of all for-hire vehicle companies while the city conducts a study of traffic patterns, congestion, and air quality. In Uber's case, the cap would limit the ride-hail giant to just 201 new drivers for the year.

And this could very well cripple Uber, perhaps permanently, in one of its crucial markets.

Uber has 26,000 active drivers and 18,000 registered vehicles in New York alone (that means New York City makes up about 16% of the ride-hail giant's American driver force). That's a lot of cars, so a yearlong cap on growth may not seem like a death sentence.

But consider that Uber sees 25,000 new users every week in New York. If demand continues at this rate and the supply of rides stays more or less stagnant, the time riders spend waiting for their Uber driver — especially in the outer boroughs — will certainly increase.

In 2014, wait times in Manhattan were only 2 minutes and 25 seconds, while in the outer boroughs they were 3 minutes and 8 seconds. With the cap, however, it's likely that outer borough service will falter as most drivers will flood Manhattan to meet the exploding demand. And for a company that has staked its reputation on getting you a ride — fast — longer wait times are a very, very bad thing. Uber's worst-case scenario in New York City is that formerly loyal riders will grow frustrated with this and turn to a faster alternative.

With the rapid growth of Uber and similar services, it makes sense that the city would want to freeze growth in order to effectively analyze traffic congestion. "With an anticipated 2,000 additional vehicles coming online each month, it's not a great stretch of logic to say that hitting a temporary pause button prevents a lot of skewed results," TLC spokesperson Allan Fromberg told BuzzFeed News.